Why Orlando Pirates Didn’t Win Q2 (2014/15)
Before the start of Q2 2014/15 I predicted that Orlando Pirates was likely to win Q2.
When making predictions a few things have to hold, one among them is that things have to stay more or less the same (no major deviation from the norm) and that history has some predictive power.
When a massive unexpected event occurs it most often nullifies the prediction. Going to Q2 Bucs was playing good football, winning games and scoring goals.
Orlando Pirates won four of their last five Absa Premier League matches in Q1 an 80% success rate!
In the last five PSL games they scored 8 goals – an average of 1.6 goals a match.
Just before the start of Q2 Orlando Pirates trounced Ajax Cape Town 4 – 1 in Telkom KnockOut.
This was a team on fire. Playing good football, high morale and in good spirits. Historically Orlando Pirates has had a better “Q2” than “Q1” (the Qrt system is new, so this is a proxy). In short going into Q2 Pirates had everything going for it.
So what happened that changed their fortunes?
Just before their Q2 campaign started Orlando Pirates captain Senzo Meyiwa was murdered. That event was never even considered in our predictions for Q2.
That event has had such an effect on the team spirit Vladimir Vermezovic left sighting low moral and his inability to lift it as one of the reasons he resigned. Eric Tinkler is also sighting low moral as something they need to continue working on after their 2 – 1 loss to Kaizer Chiefs.
There is no way to predict such major events, thus, us calling Q2 wrong was beyond any man made algorithms.