Will Kaizer Chiefs Win Absa Premiership?
I smiled when I saw this:
After seeing past Levante 5-0 away from home this weekend, Barcelona are being tipped to win the title.
Kaizer Chiefs are leading in the Absa Premiership with 4 more points than Ajax Cape Town, and remain unbeaten. They just won MTN8 Wafa Wafa beating Orlando Pirates. They have conceded the least number of goals for the total number of matches they have played and most importantly they are scoring goals.
Why then is it so hard to find write ups tipping Kaizer Chiefs to win the title? What I often hear is that it’s too early in the season. That early season performance is not a predictive indicator of who will win the league. That there is little to no correlation between early performance in the league and lifting the cup.
I suspect that this is informed by past experiences:
- Sundowns had the best start in 2013/2014 season leading with 14 points after 6 games and they won the league.
- Kaizer Chiefs had the best start in 2012/2013 season leading with 16 points after 6 games and they won the league.
But these are exceptions. Every other season going back to 2006/2007 the leader in the first six games did not win the league.
We do not have enough data to make a call in either direction – if PSL were to donate the data to SPORTZAR we will gladly run more sophisticated algorithms searching for patterns and publish the results here.
So I am left with a few question, I hope you can help with:
Does 2013/2014 and 2012/2013 seasons which seem to suggest that early season performance matter carry more weight because they are more recent or were they an exception to the norm? If it’s the later why would a team squander a 4 – 10 points lead and lose the title?
- Is it fatigue?
- Lack of discipline?
- Or is it because after a couple games other teams figure the playing style, strong and weak points and can then easily beat or contain the leading team?
Would a richer bench in terms of reserve players help?
Higher rotation of players – addressing point (1) and (3)
Would stricter fines in clubs for poor player performance help with point (2)
Most often than not the coach gets fired for poor performance not the players.
Chiefs is playing Maritzburg Utd this weekend. Their performance will help us answer some of these questions.
What do you think will happen? Will Kaizer Chiefs win the title? If yes, why? If no, why?
Hit us with your answers and comments in the comment box below!